FK Spartak Tambov vs Dinamo St. Petersburg — Second League - Group 3 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 14+ matches
FK Spartak Tambov25%
Dinamo St. Petersburg49%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Dinamo St. Petersburg creates 51% more chances
Season form · 60 home / 14 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FK Spartak Tambov ↓
Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FK Spartak Tambov at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches
Dinamo St. Petersburg away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FK Spartak Tambov attack 1.47 + Dinamo St. Petersburg defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.98
Dinamo St. Petersburg attack 1.93 + FK Spartak Tambov defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.48
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Dinamo St. Petersburg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Dinamo St. Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
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Ryazan
Saturn Ramenskoye
Salyut-Belgorod
FK Sokol Saratov
Strogino
Kaluga
Khimik-Arsenal
Znamya Noginsk
Krasnyy-SGAFKST
Avangard Kursk
Khimki II
Kvant
Metallurg Vidnoye
Fakel II
SakhalinIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
FK Spartak Tambov host Dinamo St. Petersburg on Saturday, 28 June 2025 at 12:00. The match is part of the Second League - Group 3 2020/2021 season.
Second League - Group 3: FK Spartak Tambov 0–1 Dinamo St. Petersburg
Dinamo St. Petersburg beat FK Spartak Tambov 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on June 28, 2025.
Goals: M. Pershin (39' pen).
The match was played at Spartak Stadium in Tambov.