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FK Spartak Tambov vs Dinamo Bryansk — Cup 2019

FK Spartak Tambov
FK Spartak Tambov
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
A. Shulgin 62'
A. Medvedev 83'
V. Faskhutdinov 28'
M. Novikov 5'
8/23/2023CupCup · Regions Path - 2nd RoundStadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FK Spartak Tambov40%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Bryansk36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Spartak Tambov
1.57
Dinamo Bryansk
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

FK Spartak Tambov
2.00
Dinamo Bryansk
1.29

allows per match

FK Spartak Tambov
1.67
Dinamo Bryansk
1.14

finishing

FK Spartak Tambov+0.00on par
Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Spartak Tambov ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FK Spartak Tambov or draw
64%
FK Spartak Tambov or Dinamo Bryansk
76%
Draw or Dinamo Bryansk
60%

Winning margin

FK Spartak Tambov wins by 2+
20%
Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FK Spartak Tambov 1+ goals
79%
FK Spartak Tambov 2+ goals
46%
FK Spartak Tambov 3+ goals
21%
Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
77%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
43%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FK Spartak Tambov (draw refunded)
53%
Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Spartak Tambov at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Spartak Tambov attack 2.00 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.57

Dinamo Bryansk attack 1.29 + FK Spartak Tambov defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FK Spartak Tambov scores more
40%
level
24%
Dinamo Bryansk scores more
36%

FK Spartak Tambov at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FK Spartak Tambov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
M. Novikov
28'
V. Faskhutdinov
62'
A. Shulgin
83'
A. Medvedev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FK Spartak Tambov 1 – 3 Dinamo Bryansk

Dinamo Bryansk beat FK Spartak Tambov 3-1 in Cup on August 23, 2023.

Goals: M. Novikov (5'), V. Faskhutdinov (28'), A. Shulgin (62'), A. Medvedev (83').

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Tambov.