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FK Sokol Saratov vs Znamya Noginsk — Second League - Group 3 2020

FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Znamya Noginsk
Znamya Noginsk
9/22/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 12Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

FK Sokol Saratov57%
×Draw23%
Znamya Noginsk20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Sokol Saratov
1.77
Znamya Noginsk
0.95

FK Sokol Saratov creates 86% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 55 away

creates per match

FK Sokol Saratov
1.75
Znamya Noginsk
1.13

allows per match

FK Sokol Saratov
0.77
Znamya Noginsk
1.78

finishing

FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par
Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sokol Saratov ↓

Znamya Noginsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FK Sokol Saratov or draw
80%
FK Sokol Saratov or Znamya Noginsk
77%
Draw or Znamya Noginsk
43%

Winning margin

FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
32%
Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
83%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
53%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
26%
Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals
61%
Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals
25%
Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
74%
Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sokol Saratov at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.77 · 48 matches

Znamya Noginsk away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sokol Saratov attack 1.75 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.77

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.13 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FK Sokol Saratov scores more
57%
level
23%
Znamya Noginsk scores more
20%

FK Sokol Saratov at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "FK Sokol Saratov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: FK Sokol Saratov 1–2 Znamya Noginsk

Znamya Noginsk beat FK Sokol Saratov 2-1 in Second League - Group 3 on September 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Saratov.