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FK Sokol Saratov vs Urozhay — First League 2018

FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Urozhay
Urozhay
11/25/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 20Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

FK Sokol Saratov36%
×Draw30%
Urozhay34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Sokol Saratov
1.06
Urozhay
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 53 away

creates per match

FK Sokol Saratov
0.67
Urozhay
0.92

allows per match

FK Sokol Saratov
1.13
Urozhay
1.45

finishing

FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par
Urozhay+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sokol Saratov ↓

Urozhay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

FK Sokol Saratov or draw
66%
FK Sokol Saratov or Urozhay
70%
Draw or Urozhay
64%

Winning margin

FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
14%
Urozhay wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
65%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
29%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
9%
Urozhay 1+ goals
64%
Urozhay 2+ goals
27%
Urozhay 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
51%
Urozhay (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sokol Saratov at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.13 · 52 matches

Urozhay away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sokol Saratov attack 0.67 + Urozhay defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.06

Urozhay attack 0.92 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

FK Sokol Saratov scores more
36%
level
30%
Urozhay scores more
34%

FK Sokol Saratov at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "FK Sokol Saratov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Sokol Saratov vs Urozhay

Urozhay beat FK Sokol Saratov 3-1 in First League on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Saratov.