FK Sokol Saratov 3–2 Shinnik Yaroslavl

FK Sokol Saratov

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Shinnik Yaroslavl

7/23/2023

First League · Round 2Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

FK Sokol Saratov35%

×Draw30%

Shinnik Yaroslavl35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Sokol SaratovExpected goals in this matchShinnik Yaroslavl

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.06

FK Sokol Saratov

1.07

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 123 away

0.67

creates per match

0.99

1.13

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

FK Sokol Saratov

0.67

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.99

allows per match

FK Sokol Saratov

1.13

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sokol Saratov ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

FK Sokol Saratov or draw

65%

FK Sokol Saratov or Shinnik Yaroslavl

70%

Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl

65%

Winning margin

FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+

14%

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals

66%

FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals

29%

FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals

9%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

65%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

29%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)

50%

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sokol Saratov at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.13 · 52 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.48 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sokol Saratov attack 0.67 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.07

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

FK Sokol Saratov scores more

35%

level

30%

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

35%

FK Sokol Saratov at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "FK Sokol Saratov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff