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FK Sokol Saratov vs Rodina Moskva — First League 2018

FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
4/5/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 27Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

FK Sokol Saratov25%
×Draw29%
Rodina Moskva46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Sokol Saratov
0.82
Rodina Moskva
1.24

Rodina Moskva creates 51% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

creates per match

FK Sokol Saratov
0.67
Rodina Moskva
1.32

allows per match

FK Sokol Saratov
1.16
Rodina Moskva
0.97

finishing

FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sokol Saratov ↓

Rodina Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

FK Sokol Saratov or draw
54%
FK Sokol Saratov or Rodina Moskva
71%
Draw or Rodina Moskva
75%

Winning margin

FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
8%
Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
56%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
20%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
5%
Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
71%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
35%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
35%
Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sokol Saratov at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

Rodina Moskva away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.97 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sokol Saratov attack 0.67 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.82

Rodina Moskva attack 1.32 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FK Sokol Saratov scores more
25%
level
29%
Rodina Moskva scores more
46%

Rodina Moskva at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rodina Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: FK Sokol Saratov 1–3 Rodina Moskva

Rodina Moskva beat FK Sokol Saratov 3-1 in First League on April 5, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Saratov.