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FK Sokol Saratov vs Fakel II — Second League - Group 3 2020

FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fakel II
Fakel II
8/15/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

FK Sokol Saratov70%
×Draw19%
Fakel II11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Sokol Saratov
2.06
Fakel II
0.65

FK Sokol Saratov creates 217% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 30 away

creates per match

FK Sokol Saratov
1.75
Fakel II
0.53

allows per match

FK Sokol Saratov
0.77
Fakel II
2.37

finishing

FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par
Fakel II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sokol Saratov ↓

Fakel II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FK Sokol Saratov or draw
89%
FK Sokol Saratov or Fakel II
81%
Draw or Fakel II
30%

Winning margin

FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
45%
Fakel II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
87%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
61%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
34%
Fakel II 1+ goals
48%
Fakel II 2+ goals
14%
Fakel II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
87%
Fakel II (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sokol Saratov at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.77 · 48 matches

Fakel II away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sokol Saratov attack 1.75 + Fakel II defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.06

Fakel II attack 0.53 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

FK Sokol Saratov scores more
70%
level
19%
Fakel II scores more
11%

FK Sokol Saratov at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "FK Sokol Saratov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: FK Sokol Saratov 2–0 Fakel II

FK Sokol Saratov beat Fakel II 2-0 in Second League - Group 3 on August 15, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Saratov.