FK Sokol Saratov 1–1 Dinamo Bryansk: Result & Stats

FK Sokol Saratov

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Dinamo Bryansk

2/14/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Yunost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FK Sokol Saratov57%

×Draw25%

Dinamo Bryansk18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Sokol SaratovExpected goals in this matchDinamo Bryansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.76

FK Sokol Saratov

1.58

Dinamo Bryansk

0.76

FK Sokol Saratov creates 108% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

2.45

creates per match

0.71

0.82

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

FK Sokol Saratov

2.45

Dinamo Bryansk

0.71

allows per match

FK Sokol Saratov

0.82

Dinamo Bryansk

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sokol Saratov ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

FK Sokol Saratov or draw

82%

FK Sokol Saratov or Dinamo Bryansk

75%

Draw or Dinamo Bryansk

43%

Winning margin

FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+

30%

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals

79%

FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals

47%

FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals

21%

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

53%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

18%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)

76%

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sokol Saratov at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 0.71, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sokol Saratov attack 2.45 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.58

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.71 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FK Sokol Saratov scores more

57%

level

25%

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

18%

FK Sokol Saratov at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "FK Sokol Saratov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff