FK Sokol Saratov 1–0 Chayka: Result & Stats

FK Sokol Saratov

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chayka

A. Molodtsov 61'

5/24/2025

First League · Round 34Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

FK Sokol Saratov37%

×Draw29%

Chayka34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Sokol SaratovExpected goals in this matchChayka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.05

FK Sokol Saratov

1.12

Chayka

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

0.67

creates per match

0.94

1.16

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

FK Sokol Saratov

0.67

Chayka

0.94

allows per match

FK Sokol Saratov

1.16

Chayka

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Chayka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sokol Saratov ↓

Chayka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

FK Sokol Saratov or draw

66%

FK Sokol Saratov or Chayka

71%

Draw or Chayka

63%

Winning margin

FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+

15%

Chayka wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals

67%

FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals

31%

FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals

10%

Chayka 1+ goals

65%

Chayka 2+ goals

28%

Chayka 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)

53%

Chayka (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sokol Saratov at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

Chayka away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sokol Saratov attack 0.67 + Chayka defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.12

Chayka attack 0.94 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FK Sokol Saratov scores more

37%

level

29%

Chayka scores more

34%

FK Sokol Saratov at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FK Sokol Saratov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

5'

22'

48'

48'

52'

52'

60'

61'

V. Rudenko← S. Biblik

61'

A. Molodtsov

66'

Artem Molodtsov

73'

I. Porokhov← R. Ermolin

73'

D. Poluboyarinov← A. Sinyak

73'

E. Karpitskiy← B. Gurtsiev

73'

O. Kozachenko← A. Khokhlachev

83'

V. Babaev← V. Shpitalny

83'

Y. Arbuzov← D. Pivovarov

83'

D. Chernyakov← N. Malyarov

Statistics

FKChayka

Discipline

6Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

Match Recap: FK Sokol Saratov vs Chayka

FK Sokol Saratov beat Chayka 1-0 in First League on May 24, 2025.

Goals: A. Molodtsov (61').

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Saratov.

FK Sokol Saratov vs Chayka — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Match Recap: FK Sokol Saratov vs Chayka