Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FK Sliven vs Zagorets — Third League - Southeast 2018

FK Sliven
FK Sliven
FT
0 – 3
Zagorets
Zagorets
3/31/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 26Stadion Hadzhi Dimitar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

FK Sliven32%
×Draw23%
Zagorets45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Sliven
1.41
Zagorets
1.72

Zagorets creates 22% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 135 away

creates per match

FK Sliven
1.68
Zagorets
1.57

allows per match

FK Sliven
1.87
Zagorets
1.14

finishing

FK Sliven+0.00on par
Zagorets+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sliven ↓

Zagorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FK Sliven or draw
55%
FK Sliven or Zagorets
77%
Draw or Zagorets
68%

Winning margin

FK Sliven wins by 2+
14%
Zagorets wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

FK Sliven 1+ goals
76%
FK Sliven 2+ goals
41%
FK Sliven 3+ goals
17%
Zagorets 1+ goals
82%
Zagorets 2+ goals
51%
Zagorets 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

FK Sliven (draw refunded)
41%
Zagorets (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sliven at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.87 · 38 matches

Zagorets away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sliven attack 1.68 + Zagorets defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.41

Zagorets attack 1.57 + FK Sliven defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FK Sliven scores more
32%
level
23%
Zagorets scores more
45%

Zagorets at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zagorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Sliven vs Zagorets

Zagorets beat FK Sliven 3-0 in Third League - Southeast on March 31, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Hadzhi Dimitar in Sliven.