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FK Sliven vs Vereya Stara Zagora — Third League - Southeast 2018

FK Sliven
FK Sliven
FT
7 – 1
Vereya Stara Zagora
Vereya Stara Zagora
8/28/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 4Stadion Hadzhi Dimitar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

FK Sliven73%
×Draw15%
Vereya Stara Zagora13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Sliven
2.99
Vereya Stara Zagora
1.20

FK Sliven creates 149% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 36 away

creates per match

FK Sliven
1.68
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.53

allows per match

FK Sliven
1.87
Vereya Stara Zagora
4.31

finishing

FK Sliven+0.00on par
Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sliven ↓

Vereya Stara Zagora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

FK Sliven or draw
87%
FK Sliven or Vereya Stara Zagora
85%
Draw or Vereya Stara Zagora
27%

Winning margin

FK Sliven wins by 2+
53%
Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

FK Sliven 1+ goals
95%
FK Sliven 2+ goals
79%
FK Sliven 3+ goals
56%
Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals
70%
Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals
34%
Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FK Sliven (draw refunded)
85%
Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sliven at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.87 · 38 matches

Vereya Stara Zagora away — creates 0.53, concedes 4.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sliven attack 1.68 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 4.31 → ÷2 → 2.99

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.53 + FK Sliven defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

FK Sliven scores more
73%
level
15%
Vereya Stara Zagora scores more
13%

FK Sliven at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "FK Sliven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: FK Sliven 7–1 Vereya Stara Zagora

FK Sliven beat Vereya Stara Zagora 7-1 in Third League - Southeast on August 28, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Hadzhi Dimitar in Sliven.