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FK Sliven vs Rozova dolina — Third League - Southeast 2018

FK Sliven
FK Sliven
FT
0 – 0
Rozova dolina
Rozova dolina
3/18/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 24Stadion Hadzhi Dimitar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

FK Sliven43%
×Draw23%
Rozova dolina34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Sliven
1.71
Rozova dolina
1.50

FK Sliven creates 14% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 136 away

creates per match

FK Sliven
1.68
Rozova dolina
1.13

allows per match

FK Sliven
1.87
Rozova dolina
1.74

finishing

FK Sliven+0.00on par
Rozova dolina+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sliven ↓

Rozova dolina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FK Sliven or draw
66%
FK Sliven or Rozova dolina
77%
Draw or Rozova dolina
57%

Winning margin

FK Sliven wins by 2+
22%
Rozova dolina wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FK Sliven 1+ goals
82%
FK Sliven 2+ goals
51%
FK Sliven 3+ goals
24%
Rozova dolina 1+ goals
78%
Rozova dolina 2+ goals
44%
Rozova dolina 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FK Sliven (draw refunded)
56%
Rozova dolina (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sliven at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.87 · 38 matches

Rozova dolina away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.74 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sliven attack 1.68 + Rozova dolina defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.71

Rozova dolina attack 1.13 + FK Sliven defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FK Sliven scores more
43%
level
23%
Rozova dolina scores more
34%

FK Sliven at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FK Sliven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: FK Sliven 0–0 Rozova dolina

FK Sliven and Rozova dolina drew 0-0 in Third League - Southeast on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Hadzhi Dimitar in Sliven.