FK Sliven 2–3 Dimitrovgrad: Result & Stats

FK Sliven

FT

2 – 3

Dimitrovgrad

5/6/2023

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 33Stadion Hadzhi Dimitar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

FK Sliven49%

×Draw23%

Dimitrovgrad28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK SlivenExpected goals in this matchDimitrovgrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.33

FK Sliven

1.81

Dimitrovgrad

1.33

FK Sliven creates 36% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 135 away

1.68

creates per match

0.80

1.87

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

FK Sliven

1.68

Dimitrovgrad

0.80

allows per match

FK Sliven

1.87

Dimitrovgrad

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Sliven+0.00on par

Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sliven ↓

Dimitrovgrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

FK Sliven or draw

72%

FK Sliven or Dimitrovgrad

77%

Draw or Dimitrovgrad

51%

Winning margin

FK Sliven wins by 2+

27%

Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FK Sliven 1+ goals

84%

FK Sliven 2+ goals

54%

FK Sliven 3+ goals

27%

Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals

74%

Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals

38%

Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FK Sliven (draw refunded)

63%

Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sliven at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.87 · 38 matches

Dimitrovgrad away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.95 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sliven attack 1.68 + Dimitrovgrad defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.81

Dimitrovgrad attack 0.80 + FK Sliven defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FK Sliven scores more

49%

level

23%

Dimitrovgrad scores more

28%

FK Sliven at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FK Sliven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff