Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FK Sliven vs Borislav 2009 — Third League - Southeast 2018

FK Sliven
FK Sliven
FT
5 – 0
Borislav 2009
Borislav 2009
2/19/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 20Stadion Hadzhi Dimitar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

FK Sliven54%
×Draw21%
Borislav 200925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Sliven
2.10
Borislav 2009
1.39

FK Sliven creates 51% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 79 away

creates per match

FK Sliven
1.68
Borislav 2009
0.91

allows per match

FK Sliven
1.87
Borislav 2009
2.52

finishing

FK Sliven+0.00on par
Borislav 2009+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sliven ↓

Borislav 2009 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

FK Sliven or draw
75%
FK Sliven or Borislav 2009
79%
Draw or Borislav 2009
46%

Winning margin

FK Sliven wins by 2+
32%
Borislav 2009 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FK Sliven 1+ goals
88%
FK Sliven 2+ goals
62%
FK Sliven 3+ goals
35%
Borislav 2009 1+ goals
75%
Borislav 2009 2+ goals
40%
Borislav 2009 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FK Sliven (draw refunded)
68%
Borislav 2009 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sliven at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.87 · 38 matches

Borislav 2009 away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.52 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sliven attack 1.68 + Borislav 2009 defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.10

Borislav 2009 attack 0.91 + FK Sliven defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FK Sliven scores more
54%
level
21%
Borislav 2009 scores more
25%

FK Sliven at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FK Sliven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: FK Sliven 5–0 Borislav 2009

FK Sliven beat Borislav 2009 5-0 in Third League - Southeast on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Hadzhi Dimitar in Sliven.