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FK Sarajevo vs Vardar Skopje — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
1/31/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FK Sarajevo47%
×Draw25%
Vardar Skopje28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Sarajevo
1.56
Vardar Skopje
1.13

FK Sarajevo creates 38% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

FK Sarajevo
1.00
Vardar Skopje
1.25

allows per match

FK Sarajevo
1.00
Vardar Skopje
2.13

finishing

FK Sarajevo+0.00on par
Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sarajevo ↓

Vardar Skopje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FK Sarajevo or draw
72%
FK Sarajevo or Vardar Skopje
75%
Draw or Vardar Skopje
53%

Winning margin

FK Sarajevo wins by 2+
24%
Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FK Sarajevo 1+ goals
79%
FK Sarajevo 2+ goals
46%
FK Sarajevo 3+ goals
21%
Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
68%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
31%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FK Sarajevo (draw refunded)
63%
Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sarajevo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Vardar Skopje away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sarajevo attack 1.00 + Vardar Skopje defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.56

Vardar Skopje attack 1.25 + FK Sarajevo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FK Sarajevo scores more
47%
level
25%
Vardar Skopje scores more
28%

FK Sarajevo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FK Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: FK Sarajevo 0–0 Vardar Skopje

FK Sarajevo and Vardar Skopje drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 31, 2026.