FK Sarajevo 2–1 Universitatea Craiova

FK Sarajevo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Universitatea Craiova

7/24/2025

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundOlimpijski Stadion Asim Ferhatović Hase

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FK Sarajevo43%

×Draw32%

Universitatea Craiova26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK SarajevoExpected goals in this matchUniversitatea Craiova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.77

FK Sarajevo

1.09

Universitatea Craiova

0.77

FK Sarajevo creates 42% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

0.75

creates per match

0.78

0.75

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

FK Sarajevo

0.75

Universitatea Craiova

0.78

allows per match

FK Sarajevo

0.75

Universitatea Craiova

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Sarajevo+0.00on par

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sarajevo ↓

Universitatea Craiova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

FK Sarajevo or draw

74%

FK Sarajevo or Universitatea Craiova

68%

Draw or Universitatea Craiova

57%

Winning margin

FK Sarajevo wins by 2+

18%

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FK Sarajevo 1+ goals

66%

FK Sarajevo 2+ goals

30%

FK Sarajevo 3+ goals

10%

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

54%

Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

18%

Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

FK Sarajevo (draw refunded)

63%

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sarajevo at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Universitatea Craiova away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sarajevo attack 0.75 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.09

Universitatea Craiova attack 0.78 + FK Sarajevo defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FK Sarajevo scores more

43%

level

32%

Universitatea Craiova scores more

26%

FK Sarajevo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FK Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff