FK Sarajevo vs Tuzla City — Premijer Liga 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 78+ matches
FK Sarajevo55%
Tuzla City21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FK Sarajevo creates 83% more chances
Season form · 114 home / 78 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FK Sarajevo ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FK Sarajevo at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.80 · 114 matches
Tuzla City away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.59 · 78 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FK Sarajevo attack 1.77 + Tuzla City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.68
Tuzla City attack 1.04 + FK Sarajevo defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.92
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 55%?"
FK Sarajevo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 55% does not mean "FK Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
FK Sarajevo
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Zrinjski
Borac Banja LukaTuzla City
Radnik Bijeljina
Siroki Brijeg
Velež
Sloboda Tuzla
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
Čelik
Zvijezda 09If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
FK Sarajevo host Tuzla City on Friday, 24 November 2023 at 17:00. The match is part of the Premijer Liga 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: FK Sarajevo vs Tuzla City
FK Sarajevo beat Tuzla City 6-2 in Premijer Liga on November 24, 2023.
The match was played at Olimpijski Stadion Asim Ferhatović Hase in Sarajevo.