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FK Sarajevo vs Mladost Doboj Kakanj — Premijer Liga 2019

FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
3/7/2020Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 22Olimpijski Stadion Asim Ferhatović Hase

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

FK Sarajevo62%
×Draw23%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Sarajevo
1.79
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
0.76

FK Sarajevo creates 136% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 28 away

creates per match

FK Sarajevo
1.77
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
0.71

allows per match

FK Sarajevo
0.80
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.82

finishing

FK Sarajevo+0.00on par
Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sarajevo ↓

Mladost Doboj Kakanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FK Sarajevo or draw
85%
FK Sarajevo or Mladost Doboj Kakanj
77%
Draw or Mladost Doboj Kakanj
38%

Winning margin

FK Sarajevo wins by 2+
36%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FK Sarajevo 1+ goals
83%
FK Sarajevo 2+ goals
53%
FK Sarajevo 3+ goals
26%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals
53%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals
18%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FK Sarajevo (draw refunded)
80%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sarajevo at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.80 · 114 matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sarajevo attack 1.77 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.79

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 0.71 + FK Sarajevo defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

FK Sarajevo scores more
62%
level
23%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more
15%

FK Sarajevo at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "FK Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: FK Sarajevo 2–1 Mladost Doboj Kakanj

FK Sarajevo beat Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2-1 in Premijer Liga on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Olimpijski Stadion Asim Ferhatović Hase in Sarajevo.