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FK Sarajevo vs GOŠK Gabela — Premijer Liga 2019

FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
GOŠK Gabela
GOŠK Gabela
12/9/2023Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 17Olimpijski Stadion Asim Ferhatović Hase

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

FK Sarajevo61%
×Draw21%
GOŠK Gabela18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Sarajevo
1.99
GOŠK Gabela
0.97

FK Sarajevo creates 105% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 34 away

creates per match

FK Sarajevo
1.77
GOŠK Gabela
1.15

allows per match

FK Sarajevo
0.80
GOŠK Gabela
2.21

finishing

FK Sarajevo+0.00on par
GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sarajevo ↓

GOŠK Gabela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FK Sarajevo or draw
82%
FK Sarajevo or GOŠK Gabela
79%
Draw or GOŠK Gabela
39%

Winning margin

FK Sarajevo wins by 2+
37%
GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FK Sarajevo 1+ goals
86%
FK Sarajevo 2+ goals
59%
FK Sarajevo 3+ goals
32%
GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals
62%
GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals
25%
GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FK Sarajevo (draw refunded)
77%
GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sarajevo at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.80 · 114 matches

GOŠK Gabela away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sarajevo attack 1.77 + GOŠK Gabela defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.99

GOŠK Gabela attack 1.15 + FK Sarajevo defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

FK Sarajevo scores more
61%
level
21%
GOŠK Gabela scores more
18%

FK Sarajevo at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "FK Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: FK Sarajevo 3–0 GOŠK Gabela

FK Sarajevo beat GOŠK Gabela 3-0 in Premijer Liga on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Olimpijski Stadion Asim Ferhatović Hase in Sarajevo.