FK Sarajevo 2–1 Buducnost Podgorica: Result & Stats

FK Sarajevo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Buducnost Podgorica

M. Fanimo 67'

B. Tatar 4'

P. Moraitis 44'

9/24/2020

UEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying RoundStadion Bilino Polje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FK Sarajevo28%

×Draw30%

Buducnost Podgorica42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK SarajevoExpected goals in this matchBuducnost Podgorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.17

FK Sarajevo

0.88

Buducnost Podgorica

1.17

Buducnost Podgorica creates 33% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

1.33

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

FK Sarajevo

1.00

Buducnost Podgorica

1.00

allows per match

FK Sarajevo

1.33

Buducnost Podgorica

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Sarajevo+0.00on par

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sarajevo ↓

Buducnost Podgorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–115%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

FK Sarajevo or draw

58%

FK Sarajevo or Buducnost Podgorica

70%

Draw or Buducnost Podgorica

72%

Winning margin

FK Sarajevo wins by 2+

9%

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

FK Sarajevo 1+ goals

59%

FK Sarajevo 2+ goals

22%

FK Sarajevo 3+ goals

6%

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals

69%

Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals

33%

Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FK Sarajevo (draw refunded)

39%

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sarajevo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Buducnost Podgorica away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sarajevo attack 1.00 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.00 + FK Sarajevo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FK Sarajevo scores more

28%

level

30%

Buducnost Podgorica scores more

42%

Buducnost Podgorica at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

28'

35'

39'

44'

45'

53'

58'

A. Đokanović← T. Sušić

67'

68'

75'

75'

81'

H. Handžić← M. Ahmetović

85'

A. Vujačić← V. Terzić

86'

Aleksandar Vujačić

89'

Vladan Kovačević

90'

Amer Dupovac

90+1'

K. Velkoski← M. Fanimo

FK4-3-3

Buducnost4-2-3-1

45

⚽

Moraitis

10

Ivanović

29

▼

19

18

24

23

26

8

33

1

13

6

3

25

29

10

31

▼

Sušić

21

Pejović

32

⚽

Tatar

38

⚽

▼

Fanimo

9

▼

Ahmetović

Manager: V. Marinović

58'▲A. Đokanović←▼T. Sušić

81'▲H. Handžić←▼M. Ahmetović

90+1'▲K. Velkoski←▼M. Fanimo

FK Sarajevo substitutes

24Đokanović28Handžić11Velkoski7Hebibović20Salčin5Bešić16Džafić

Manager: M. Milinković

85'▲A. Vujačić←▼V. Terzić

Buducnost Podgorica substitutes

9Vujačić77Bojović22Đuričković31Pavličić96Janketić99Zarubica5Babić

UEFA Europa League: FK Sarajevo 2–1 Buducnost Podgorica

FK Sarajevo beat Buducnost Podgorica 2-1 in UEFA Europa League on September 24, 2020.

Goals: B. Tatar (4'), P. Moraitis (44'), M. Fanimo (67').

The match was played at Stadion Bilino Polje in Zenica.

FK Sarajevo vs Buducnost Podgorica — UEFA Europa League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Europa League: FK Sarajevo 2–1 Buducnost Podgorica