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FK Romanija Pale vs Velež Nevesinje — 1st League - RS 2019

FK Romanija Pale
FK Romanija Pale
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Velež Nevesinje
Velež Nevesinje
3/2/20241st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 18Stadion FK Romanija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

FK Romanija Pale60%
×Draw22%
Velež Nevesinje18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Romanija Pale
1.94
Velež Nevesinje
0.95

FK Romanija Pale creates 104% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 50 away

creates per match

FK Romanija Pale
1.37
Velež Nevesinje
0.94

allows per match

FK Romanija Pale
0.96
Velež Nevesinje
2.50

finishing

FK Romanija Pale+0.00on par
Velež Nevesinje+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Romanija Pale ↓

Velež Nevesinje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FK Romanija Pale or draw
82%
FK Romanija Pale or Velež Nevesinje
78%
Draw or Velež Nevesinje
40%

Winning margin

FK Romanija Pale wins by 2+
36%
Velež Nevesinje wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FK Romanija Pale 1+ goals
86%
FK Romanija Pale 2+ goals
58%
FK Romanija Pale 3+ goals
30%
Velež Nevesinje 1+ goals
61%
Velež Nevesinje 2+ goals
25%
Velež Nevesinje 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FK Romanija Pale (draw refunded)
77%
Velež Nevesinje (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Romanija Pale at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.96 · 49 matches

Velež Nevesinje away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.50 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Romanija Pale attack 1.37 + Velež Nevesinje defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.94

Velež Nevesinje attack 0.94 + FK Romanija Pale defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

FK Romanija Pale scores more
60%
level
22%
Velež Nevesinje scores more
18%

FK Romanija Pale at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "FK Romanija Pale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Romanija Pale vs Velež Nevesinje

FK Romanija Pale beat Velež Nevesinje 2-1 in 1st League - RS on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Romanija in Pale.