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FK Romanija Pale vs Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad — 1st League - RS 2019

FK Romanija Pale
FK Romanija Pale
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
5/17/20251st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 32Stadion FK Romanija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

FK Romanija Pale56%
×Draw24%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Romanija Pale
1.70
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
0.92

FK Romanija Pale creates 85% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 51 away

creates per match

FK Romanija Pale
1.37
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
0.88

allows per match

FK Romanija Pale
0.96
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
2.02

finishing

FK Romanija Pale+0.00on par
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Romanija Pale ↓

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FK Romanija Pale or draw
80%
FK Romanija Pale or Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
76%
Draw or Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
44%

Winning margin

FK Romanija Pale wins by 2+
31%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FK Romanija Pale 1+ goals
82%
FK Romanija Pale 2+ goals
51%
FK Romanija Pale 3+ goals
24%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 1+ goals
60%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 2+ goals
23%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FK Romanija Pale (draw refunded)
73%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Romanija Pale at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.96 · 49 matches

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Romanija Pale attack 1.37 + Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.70

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad attack 0.88 + FK Romanija Pale defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FK Romanija Pale scores more
56%
level
24%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad scores more
20%

FK Romanija Pale at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FK Romanija Pale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Romanija Pale vs Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

FK Romanija Pale and Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad drew 2-2 in 1st League - RS on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion FK Romanija in Pale.