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FK Romanija Pale vs Slavija — 1st League - RS 2019

FK Romanija Pale
FK Romanija Pale
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Slavija
Slavija
3/21/20261st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 21Stadion FK Romanija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

FK Romanija Pale50%
×Draw26%
Slavija24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Romanija Pale
1.49
Slavija
0.93

FK Romanija Pale creates 60% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 103 away

creates per match

FK Romanija Pale
1.37
Slavija
0.90

allows per match

FK Romanija Pale
0.96
Slavija
1.60

finishing

FK Romanija Pale+0.00on par
Slavija+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Romanija Pale ↓

Slavija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FK Romanija Pale or draw
76%
FK Romanija Pale or Slavija
74%
Draw or Slavija
50%

Winning margin

FK Romanija Pale wins by 2+
25%
Slavija wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FK Romanija Pale 1+ goals
77%
FK Romanija Pale 2+ goals
44%
FK Romanija Pale 3+ goals
19%
Slavija 1+ goals
61%
Slavija 2+ goals
24%
Slavija 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FK Romanija Pale (draw refunded)
68%
Slavija (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Romanija Pale at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.96 · 49 matches

Slavija away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.60 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Romanija Pale attack 1.37 + Slavija defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.49

Slavija attack 0.90 + FK Romanija Pale defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FK Romanija Pale scores more
50%
level
26%
Slavija scores more
24%

FK Romanija Pale at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FK Romanija Pale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Romanija Pale vs Slavija

FK Romanija Pale beat Slavija 2-1 in 1st League - RS on March 21, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion FK Romanija in Pale.