FK Rabotnicki 1–0 Voska Sport: Result & Stats

FK Rabotnicki

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Voska Sport

2/23/2025

First League · Round 20Toše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

FK Rabotnicki50%

×Draw26%

Voska Sport24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK RabotnickiExpected goals in this matchVoska Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.99

FK Rabotnicki

1.54

Voska Sport

0.99

FK Rabotnicki creates 56% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 33 away

1.27

creates per match

0.88

1.10

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

FK Rabotnicki

1.27

Voska Sport

0.88

allows per match

FK Rabotnicki

1.10

Voska Sport

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Rabotnicki+0.00on par

Voska Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Rabotnicki ↓

Voska Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FK Rabotnicki or draw

76%

FK Rabotnicki or Voska Sport

74%

Draw or Voska Sport

50%

Winning margin

FK Rabotnicki wins by 2+

26%

Voska Sport wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FK Rabotnicki 1+ goals

79%

FK Rabotnicki 2+ goals

45%

FK Rabotnicki 3+ goals

20%

Voska Sport 1+ goals

63%

Voska Sport 2+ goals

26%

Voska Sport 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FK Rabotnicki (draw refunded)

67%

Voska Sport (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Rabotnicki at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 107 matches

Voska Sport away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Rabotnicki attack 1.27 + Voska Sport defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.54

Voska Sport attack 0.88 + FK Rabotnicki defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FK Rabotnicki scores more

50%

level

26%

Voska Sport scores more

24%

FK Rabotnicki at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FK Rabotnicki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff