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FK Rabotnicki vs Shkendija — First League 2019

FK Rabotnicki
FK Rabotnicki
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shkendija
Shkendija
9/24/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 4Toše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

FK Rabotnicki31%
×Draw27%
Shkendija42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Rabotnicki
1.12
Shkendija
1.35

Shkendija creates 21% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 105 away

creates per match

FK Rabotnicki
1.27
Shkendija
1.60

allows per match

FK Rabotnicki
1.10
Shkendija
0.97

finishing

FK Rabotnicki+0.00on par
Shkendija+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Rabotnicki ↓

Shkendija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FK Rabotnicki or draw
58%
FK Rabotnicki or Shkendija
73%
Draw or Shkendija
69%

Winning margin

FK Rabotnicki wins by 2+
12%
Shkendija wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FK Rabotnicki 1+ goals
67%
FK Rabotnicki 2+ goals
31%
FK Rabotnicki 3+ goals
10%
Shkendija 1+ goals
74%
Shkendija 2+ goals
39%
Shkendija 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FK Rabotnicki (draw refunded)
42%
Shkendija (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Rabotnicki at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 107 matches

Shkendija away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.97 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Rabotnicki attack 1.27 + Shkendija defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.12

Shkendija attack 1.60 + FK Rabotnicki defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FK Rabotnicki scores more
31%
level
27%
Shkendija scores more
42%

Shkendija at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shkendija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Rabotnicki vs Shkendija

Shkendija beat FK Rabotnicki 1-0 in First League on September 24, 2025.

The match was played at Toše Proeski Arena in Skopje.