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FK Rabotnicki vs Bregalnica Štip — First League 2019

FK Rabotnicki
FK Rabotnicki
FT
5 – 4
HT: 3 – 2
Bregalnica Štip
Bregalnica Štip
5/7/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 31Toše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

FK Rabotnicki49%
×Draw26%
Bregalnica Štip25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Rabotnicki
1.46
Bregalnica Štip
0.96

FK Rabotnicki creates 52% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 47 away

creates per match

FK Rabotnicki
1.27
Bregalnica Štip
0.81

allows per match

FK Rabotnicki
1.10
Bregalnica Štip
1.64

finishing

FK Rabotnicki+0.00on par
Bregalnica Štip+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Rabotnicki ↓

Bregalnica Štip →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FK Rabotnicki or draw
75%
FK Rabotnicki or Bregalnica Štip
74%
Draw or Bregalnica Štip
51%

Winning margin

FK Rabotnicki wins by 2+
24%
Bregalnica Štip wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FK Rabotnicki 1+ goals
77%
FK Rabotnicki 2+ goals
43%
FK Rabotnicki 3+ goals
18%
Bregalnica Štip 1+ goals
62%
Bregalnica Štip 2+ goals
25%
Bregalnica Štip 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FK Rabotnicki (draw refunded)
66%
Bregalnica Štip (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Rabotnicki at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 107 matches

Bregalnica Štip away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Rabotnicki attack 1.27 + Bregalnica Štip defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

Bregalnica Štip attack 0.81 + FK Rabotnicki defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FK Rabotnicki scores more
49%
level
26%
Bregalnica Štip scores more
25%

FK Rabotnicki at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FK Rabotnicki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Rabotnicki vs Bregalnica Štip

FK Rabotnicki beat Bregalnica Štip 5-4 in First League on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Toše Proeski Arena in Skopje.