FK Rabotnicki 1–0 Besa Dobërdoll: Result & Stats

FK Rabotnicki

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Besa Dobërdoll

3/31/2025

First League · Round 25Toše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

FK Rabotnicki50%

×Draw26%

Besa Dobërdoll24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK RabotnickiExpected goals in this matchBesa Dobërdoll

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.96

FK Rabotnicki

1.52

Besa Dobërdoll

0.96

FK Rabotnicki creates 58% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 17 away

1.27

creates per match

0.82

1.10

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

FK Rabotnicki

1.27

Besa Dobërdoll

0.82

allows per match

FK Rabotnicki

1.10

Besa Dobërdoll

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Rabotnicki+0.00on par

Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Rabotnicki ↓

Besa Dobërdoll →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FK Rabotnicki or draw

76%

FK Rabotnicki or Besa Dobërdoll

74%

Draw or Besa Dobërdoll

50%

Winning margin

FK Rabotnicki wins by 2+

26%

Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FK Rabotnicki 1+ goals

78%

FK Rabotnicki 2+ goals

45%

FK Rabotnicki 3+ goals

20%

Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals

62%

Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals

25%

Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FK Rabotnicki (draw refunded)

68%

Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Rabotnicki at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 107 matches

Besa Dobërdoll away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Rabotnicki attack 1.27 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.52

Besa Dobërdoll attack 0.82 + FK Rabotnicki defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FK Rabotnicki scores more

50%

level

26%

Besa Dobërdoll scores more

24%

FK Rabotnicki at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FK Rabotnicki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff