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FK Partizan vs Vojvodina — Super Liga 2026

FK Partizan
FK Partizan
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vojvodina
Vojvodina
12/2/2023Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 17Stadion Partizana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

FK Partizan53%
×Draw24%
Vojvodina23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Partizan
1.75
Vojvodina
1.07

FK Partizan creates 64% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 146 away

creates per match

FK Partizan
2.23
Vojvodina
1.36

allows per match

FK Partizan
0.78
Vojvodina
1.26

finishing

FK Partizan+0.00on par
Vojvodina+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Partizan ↓

Vojvodina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FK Partizan or draw
77%
FK Partizan or Vojvodina
76%
Draw or Vojvodina
47%

Winning margin

FK Partizan wins by 2+
29%
Vojvodina wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FK Partizan 1+ goals
83%
FK Partizan 2+ goals
52%
FK Partizan 3+ goals
25%
Vojvodina 1+ goals
66%
Vojvodina 2+ goals
29%
Vojvodina 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FK Partizan (draw refunded)
70%
Vojvodina (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Partizan at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.78 · 148 matches

Vojvodina away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.26 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Partizan attack 2.23 + Vojvodina defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.75

Vojvodina attack 1.36 + FK Partizan defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FK Partizan scores more
53%
level
24%
Vojvodina scores more
23%

FK Partizan at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FK Partizan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: FK Partizan 3–1 Vojvodina

FK Partizan beat Vojvodina 3-1 in Super Liga on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Partizana in Beograd.