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FK Partizan vs Novi Pazar — Super Liga 2026

FK Partizan
FK Partizan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Novi Pazar
Novi Pazar
11/9/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 15Stadion Partizana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

FK Partizan61%
×Draw22%
Novi Pazar18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Partizan
1.93
Novi Pazar
0.93

FK Partizan creates 108% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 114 away

creates per match

FK Partizan
2.23
Novi Pazar
1.07

allows per match

FK Partizan
0.78
Novi Pazar
1.63

finishing

FK Partizan+0.00on par
Novi Pazar+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Partizan ↓

Novi Pazar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FK Partizan or draw
82%
FK Partizan or Novi Pazar
78%
Draw or Novi Pazar
39%

Winning margin

FK Partizan wins by 2+
36%
Novi Pazar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FK Partizan 1+ goals
85%
FK Partizan 2+ goals
57%
FK Partizan 3+ goals
30%
Novi Pazar 1+ goals
61%
Novi Pazar 2+ goals
24%
Novi Pazar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FK Partizan (draw refunded)
77%
Novi Pazar (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Partizan at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.78 · 148 matches

Novi Pazar away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.63 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Partizan attack 2.23 + Novi Pazar defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.93

Novi Pazar attack 1.07 + FK Partizan defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

FK Partizan scores more
61%
level
22%
Novi Pazar scores more
18%

FK Partizan at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "FK Partizan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Partizan vs Novi Pazar

FK Partizan beat Novi Pazar 2-0 in Super Liga on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Partizana in Belgrade.