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FK Partizan vs Mladost Lucani — Super Liga 2026

FK Partizan
FK Partizan
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mladost Lucani
Mladost Lucani
10/24/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 13Stadion Partizana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

FK Partizan63%
×Draw22%
Mladost Lucani16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Partizan
1.90
Mladost Lucani
0.82

FK Partizan creates 132% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 147 away

creates per match

FK Partizan
2.23
Mladost Lucani
0.86

allows per match

FK Partizan
0.78
Mladost Lucani
1.57

finishing

FK Partizan+0.00on par
Mladost Lucani+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Partizan ↓

Mladost Lucani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FK Partizan or draw
84%
FK Partizan or Mladost Lucani
78%
Draw or Mladost Lucani
37%

Winning margin

FK Partizan wins by 2+
37%
Mladost Lucani wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

FK Partizan 1+ goals
85%
FK Partizan 2+ goals
56%
FK Partizan 3+ goals
29%
Mladost Lucani 1+ goals
56%
Mladost Lucani 2+ goals
20%
Mladost Lucani 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FK Partizan (draw refunded)
80%
Mladost Lucani (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Partizan at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.78 · 148 matches

Mladost Lucani away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Partizan attack 2.23 + Mladost Lucani defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.90

Mladost Lucani attack 0.86 + FK Partizan defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

FK Partizan scores more
63%
level
22%
Mladost Lucani scores more
16%

FK Partizan at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FK Partizan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Partizan vs Mladost Lucani

FK Partizan beat Mladost Lucani 3-0 in Super Liga on October 24, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Partizana in Belgrade.