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FK Partizan vs Javor — Super Liga 2026

FK Partizan
FK Partizan
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Javor
Javor
10/23/2022Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 16Stadion Partizana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

FK Partizan64%
×Draw21%
Javor15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Partizan
2.02
Javor
0.87

FK Partizan creates 132% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 90 away

creates per match

FK Partizan
2.23
Javor
0.96

allows per match

FK Partizan
0.78
Javor
1.80

finishing

FK Partizan+0.00on par
Javor+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Partizan ↓

Javor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FK Partizan or draw
85%
FK Partizan or Javor
79%
Draw or Javor
36%

Winning margin

FK Partizan wins by 2+
39%
Javor wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

FK Partizan 1+ goals
87%
FK Partizan 2+ goals
60%
FK Partizan 3+ goals
33%
Javor 1+ goals
58%
Javor 2+ goals
22%
Javor 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FK Partizan (draw refunded)
81%
Javor (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Partizan at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.78 · 148 matches

Javor away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.80 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Partizan attack 2.23 + Javor defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.02

Javor attack 0.96 + FK Partizan defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

FK Partizan scores more
64%
level
21%
Javor scores more
15%

FK Partizan at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FK Partizan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: FK Partizan 3–3 Javor

FK Partizan and Javor drew 3-3 in Super Liga on October 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Partizana in Beograd.