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FK Partizan vs FK Crvena Zvezda — Super Liga 2026

FK Partizan
FK Partizan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FK Crvena Zvezda
FK Crvena Zvezda
12/20/2023Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 9Stadion Partizana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

FK Partizan35%
×Draw24%
FK Crvena Zvezda41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Partizan
1.50
FK Crvena Zvezda
1.65

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 10% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 142 away

creates per match

FK Partizan
2.23
FK Crvena Zvezda
2.53

allows per match

FK Partizan
0.78
FK Crvena Zvezda
0.76

finishing

FK Partizan+0.00on par
FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Partizan ↓

FK Crvena Zvezda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FK Partizan or draw
59%
FK Partizan or FK Crvena Zvezda
76%
Draw or FK Crvena Zvezda
65%

Winning margin

FK Partizan wins by 2+
17%
FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

FK Partizan 1+ goals
78%
FK Partizan 2+ goals
44%
FK Partizan 3+ goals
19%
FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals
81%
FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals
49%
FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

FK Partizan (draw refunded)
46%
FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Partizan at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.78 · 148 matches

FK Crvena Zvezda away — creates 2.53, concedes 0.76 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Partizan attack 2.23 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.50

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 2.53 + FK Partizan defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FK Partizan scores more
35%
level
24%
FK Crvena Zvezda scores more
41%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: FK Partizan 2–1 FK Crvena Zvezda

FK Partizan beat FK Crvena Zvezda 2-1 in Super Liga on December 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Partizana in Beograd.