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FK Crvena Zvezda vs FK Partizan — Super Liga 2026

FK Crvena Zvezda
FK Crvena Zvezda
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FK Partizan
FK Partizan
2/22/2026Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 24Stadion Rajko Mit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

FK Crvena Zvezda54%
×Draw22%
FK Partizan24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Crvena Zvezda
1.94
FK Partizan
1.23

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 58% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 142 away

creates per match

FK Crvena Zvezda
2.91
FK Partizan
1.90

allows per match

FK Crvena Zvezda
0.57
FK Partizan
0.97

finishing

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par
FK Partizan+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Crvena Zvezda ↓

FK Partizan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FK Crvena Zvezda or draw
76%
FK Crvena Zvezda or FK Partizan
78%
Draw or FK Partizan
46%

Winning margin

FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+
31%
FK Partizan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals
86%
FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals
58%
FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals
30%
FK Partizan 1+ goals
71%
FK Partizan 2+ goals
35%
FK Partizan 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)
69%
FK Partizan (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Crvena Zvezda at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.57 · 149 matches

FK Partizan away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.97 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 2.91 + FK Partizan defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.94

FK Partizan attack 1.90 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FK Crvena Zvezda scores more
54%
level
22%
FK Partizan scores more
24%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: FK Crvena Zvezda 3–0 FK Partizan

FK Crvena Zvezda beat FK Partizan 3-0 in Super Liga on February 22, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Rajko Mit in Belgrade.