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FK Partizan vs Backa — Super Liga 2018

FK Partizan
FK Partizan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Backa
Backa
9/28/2020Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 9Stadion Partizana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

FK Partizan72%
×Draw18%
Backa10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Partizan
2.17
Backa
0.64

FK Partizan creates 239% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 38 away

creates per match

FK Partizan
2.23
Backa
0.50

allows per match

FK Partizan
0.78
Backa
2.11

finishing

FK Partizan+0.00on par
Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Partizan ↓

Backa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FK Partizan or draw
90%
FK Partizan or Backa
82%
Draw or Backa
28%

Winning margin

FK Partizan wins by 2+
48%
Backa wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

FK Partizan 1+ goals
89%
FK Partizan 2+ goals
64%
FK Partizan 3+ goals
36%
Backa 1+ goals
47%
Backa 2+ goals
14%
Backa 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

FK Partizan (draw refunded)
88%
Backa (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Partizan at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.78 · 148 matches

Backa away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.11 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Partizan attack 2.23 + Backa defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.17

Backa attack 0.50 + FK Partizan defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

FK Partizan scores more
72%
level
18%
Backa scores more
10%

FK Partizan at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "FK Partizan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: FK Partizan 2–1 Backa

FK Partizan beat Backa 2-1 in Super Liga on September 28, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Partizana in Beograd.