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FK Neftekhimik vs Ural — First League 2024

FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
Preview
15:00
Ural
Ural
9/17/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Neftekhimik Stadium
36%
FK Neftekhimik
model favours
36%29%35%

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

FK Neftekhimik36%
×Draw29%
Ural35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Neftekhimik
1.13
Ural
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 34 away

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik
1.10
Ural
1.21

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik
1.00
Ural
1.15

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par
Ural+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

Ural →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw
65%
FK Neftekhimik or Ural
71%
Draw or Ural
64%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
15%
Ural wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
68%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
31%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
11%
Ural 1+ goals
67%
Ural 2+ goals
30%
Ural 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
51%
Ural (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.00 · 39 matches

Ural away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.10 + Ural defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

Ural attack 1.21 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more
36%
level
29%
Ural scores more
35%

FK Neftekhimik at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Neftekhimik
LDWDW
Ural
LDWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FK Neftekhimik vs Ural — Match Preview

FK Neftekhimik face Ural on September 17, 2026 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FK Neftekhimik host Ural at Neftekhimik Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.