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FK Neftekhimik vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2024

FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
Preview
15:00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
8/15/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Neftekhimik Stadium
Big match
42%
FK Neftekhimik
model favours
42%30%27%

Their last 5 meetings averaged just 1.4 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
68%
under 2.5 goals
39%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

FK Neftekhimik42%
×Draw30%
Shinnik Yaroslavl27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Neftekhimik
1.14
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.86

FK Neftekhimik creates 33% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 39 away

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik
1.09
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.77

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik
0.95
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.18

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw
73%
FK Neftekhimik or Shinnik Yaroslavl
70%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
58%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
18%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
68%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
32%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
11%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
58%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
21%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
60%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.95 · 44 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.09 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.77 + FK Neftekhimik defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more
42%
level
30%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
27%

FK Neftekhimik at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Neftekhimik
LDWDW
Yaroslavl
DDDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FK Neftekhimik host Shinnik Yaroslavl

August 15, 2026: FK Neftekhimik take on Shinnik Yaroslavl in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FK Neftekhimik host Shinnik Yaroslavl at Neftekhimik Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.