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FK Neftekhimik vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2018

FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3/28/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 26Neftekhimik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

FK Neftekhimik47%
×Draw27%
Shinnik Yaroslavl26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Neftekhimik
1.41
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.97

FK Neftekhimik creates 45% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 123 away

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik
1.33
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.99

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik
0.95
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.48

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw
74%
FK Neftekhimik or Shinnik Yaroslavl
73%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
53%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
23%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
76%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
41%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
17%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
62%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
25%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
65%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.95 · 122 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.48 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.33 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.41

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + FK Neftekhimik defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more
47%
level
27%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
26%

FK Neftekhimik at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Neftekhimik vs Shinnik Yaroslavl

FK Neftekhimik and Shinnik Yaroslavl drew 0-0 in First League on March 28, 2026.

The match was played at Neftekhimik Stadium in Nizhnekamsk.