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FK Neftekhimik vs Nizhny Novgorod — First League 2024

FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
Preview
16:00
Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
11/28/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 20Neftekhimik Stadium
37%
Nizhny Novgorod
model favours
34%30%37%

FK Neftekhimik sit 13, Nizhny Novgorod 2 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FK Neftekhimik34%
×Draw30%
Nizhny Novgorod37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Neftekhimik
1.04
Nizhny Novgorod
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 4 away

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik
1.09
Nizhny Novgorod
1.25

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik
0.95
Nizhny Novgorod
1.00

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw
63%
FK Neftekhimik or Nizhny Novgorod
70%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod
66%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
13%
Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
65%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
28%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
9%
Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
67%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
30%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
48%
Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.95 · 44 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.09 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.25 + FK Neftekhimik defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more
34%
level
30%
Nizhny Novgorod scores more
37%

Nizhny Novgorod at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FK Neftekhimik and Nizhny Novgorod have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Neftekhimik
LDWDW
Novgorod
WLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FK Neftekhimik host Nizhny Novgorod

November 28, 2026: FK Neftekhimik take on Nizhny Novgorod in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FK Neftekhimik host Nizhny Novgorod at Neftekhimik Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.