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FK Neftekhimik vs Mordovia Saransk — First League 2018

FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
CANC
22:00
Mordovia Saransk
Mordovia Saransk
5/15/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 38

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

FK Neftekhimik49%
×Draw26%
Mordovia Saransk25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Neftekhimik
1.47
Mordovia Saransk
0.97

FK Neftekhimik creates 52% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 36 away

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik
1.33
Mordovia Saransk
1.00

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik
0.95
Mordovia Saransk
1.61

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par
Mordovia Saransk+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

Mordovia Saransk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw
75%
FK Neftekhimik or Mordovia Saransk
74%
Draw or Mordovia Saransk
51%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
24%
Mordovia Saransk wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
77%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
43%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
18%
Mordovia Saransk 1+ goals
62%
Mordovia Saransk 2+ goals
25%
Mordovia Saransk 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
66%
Mordovia Saransk (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.95 · 122 matches

Mordovia Saransk away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.33 + Mordovia Saransk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.47

Mordovia Saransk attack 1.00 + FK Neftekhimik defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more
49%
level
26%
Mordovia Saransk scores more
25%

FK Neftekhimik at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FK Neftekhimik face Mordovia Saransk (First League)

First League returns with FK Neftekhimik hosting Mordovia Saransk. Match starts May 15, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.