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FK Neftekhimik vs Irtysh Omsk — First League 2026

FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
9/5/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 7Stadion Neftekhimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

FK Neftekhimik48%
×Draw27%
Irtysh Omsk25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Neftekhimik
1.38
Irtysh Omsk
0.91

FK Neftekhimik creates 52% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 21 away

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik
1.32
Irtysh Omsk
0.86

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik
0.96
Irtysh Omsk
1.43

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par
Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

Irtysh Omsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw
75%
FK Neftekhimik or Irtysh Omsk
73%
Draw or Irtysh Omsk
52%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
23%
Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
75%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
40%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
16%
Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
60%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
23%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
66%
Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.96 · 120 matches

Irtysh Omsk away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.32 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.38

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.86 + FK Neftekhimik defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more
48%
level
27%
Irtysh Omsk scores more
25%

FK Neftekhimik at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Neftekhimik vs Irtysh Omsk

FK Neftekhimik beat Irtysh Omsk 1-0 in First League on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Neftekhimik in Nizhnekamsk.