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FK Neftekhimik vs FC Sochi — First League 2024

FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
Preview
15:00
FC Sochi
FC Sochi
8/19/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 7Neftekhimik Stadium
39%
FK Neftekhimik
model favours
39%29%32%
1–1
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FK Neftekhimik39%
×Draw29%
FC Sochi32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Neftekhimik
1.19
FC Sochi
1.05

FK Neftekhimik creates 13% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 19 away

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik
1.05
FC Sochi
1.16

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik
0.95
FC Sochi
1.32

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par
FC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

FC Sochi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw
68%
FK Neftekhimik or FC Sochi
71%
Draw or FC Sochi
61%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
17%
FC Sochi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
70%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
33%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
12%
FC Sochi 1+ goals
65%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
28%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
55%
FC Sochi (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.95 · 41 matches

FC Sochi away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.05 + FC Sochi defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.19

FC Sochi attack 1.16 + FK Neftekhimik defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more
39%
level
29%
FC Sochi scores more
32%

FK Neftekhimik at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Neftekhimik
LDWDW
Sochi
DLWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FK Neftekhimik face FC Sochi (First League)

First League returns with FK Neftekhimik hosting FC Sochi. Match starts August 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FK Neftekhimik host FC Sochi at Neftekhimik Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.