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FK Neftekhimik vs FC Sochi — First League 2018

FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FC Sochi
FC Sochi
5/10/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 32Stadion Neftekhimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

FK Neftekhimik36%
×Draw28%
FC Sochi36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Neftekhimik
1.21
FC Sochi
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 122 home / 38 away

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik
1.33
FC Sochi
1.45

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik
0.95
FC Sochi
1.08

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par
FC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

FC Sochi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw
64%
FK Neftekhimik or FC Sochi
72%
Draw or FC Sochi
64%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
16%
FC Sochi wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
70%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
34%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
12%
FC Sochi 1+ goals
70%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
34%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
50%
FC Sochi (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.95 · 122 matches

FC Sochi away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.33 + FC Sochi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

FC Sochi attack 1.45 + FK Neftekhimik defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more
36%
level
28%
FC Sochi scores more
36%

FK Neftekhimik at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: FK Neftekhimik 1–1 FC Sochi

FK Neftekhimik and FC Sochi drew 1-1 in First League on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Neftekhimik in Nizhnekamsk.