FK Neftekhimik 2–1 FC Armavir: Result & Stats

FK Neftekhimik

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC Armavir

D. Makarov 90+2'

I. Petrov 57' (pen)

I. Tučević 70'

11/3/2019

First League · Round 21Stadion Rubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

FK Neftekhimik48%

×Draw29%

FC Armavir24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK NeftekhimikExpected goals in this matchFC Armavir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.82

FK Neftekhimik

1.29

FC Armavir

0.82

FK Neftekhimik creates 57% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 32 away

1.33

creates per match

0.69

0.95

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik

1.33

FC Armavir

0.69

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik

0.95

FC Armavir

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

FC Armavir+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

FC Armavir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw

76%

FK Neftekhimik or FC Armavir

71%

Draw or FC Armavir

52%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+

22%

FC Armavir wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals

72%

FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals

37%

FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals

14%

FC Armavir 1+ goals

56%

FC Armavir 2+ goals

20%

FC Armavir 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)

67%

FC Armavir (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.95 · 122 matches

FC Armavir away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.25 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.33 + FC Armavir defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

FC Armavir attack 0.69 + FK Neftekhimik defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more

48%

level

29%

FC Armavir scores more

24%

FK Neftekhimik at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

M. Kanaev

36'

N. Bezlikhotnov

42'

V. Galiulin

45+1'

I. Ivanchenko← R. Rzaev

56'

O. Polyakov

57'

I. PetrovPenalty

70'

I. Tučević

79'

D. Klopkov

79'

D. Michurenkov← P. Shadrin

83'

I. Petrov

90'

A. Semenov

90+4'

L. Potapov← V. Galiulin

90+3'

R. Galiakberov← M. Uridia

90+5'

A. Kireev← I. Petrov

90+2'

D. Makarov

FK

FC

13

Matyusha

15

Vasiljev

22

Ten

3

⚽

92

4

99

90

7

77

▼

9

27

3

17

4

12

20

▼

Galiulin

22

Sitdikov

7

▼

Shadrin

95

⚽

▼

Petrov

10

▼

Uridia

25

⚽

Makarov

Manager: Y. Utkulbaev

79'▲D. Michurenkov←▼P. Shadrin

90+4'▲L. Potapov←▼V. Galiulin

90+3'▲R. Galiakberov←▼M. Uridia

90+5'▲A. Kireev←▼I. Petrov

FK Neftekhimik substitutes

19Michurenkov5Potapov8Galiakberov88Kireev6Vasiev9Antonov18Isupov23Malashenko24Solovjev26Gilyazetdinov77Kutergin

Manager: A. Papikyan

45+1'▲I. Ivanchenko←▼R. Rzaev

FC Armavir substitutes

17Ivanchenko11Lusikyan24Miroshnichenko27Gafar35Rudenok45Kontsedalov78Ponomarev98Pereverzev