FK Neftekhimik 1–1 Chelyabinsk: Result & Stats

FK Neftekhimik

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chelyabinsk

R. Magomedov 69'

K. Kochiev 22'

8/30/2025

First League · Round 7Neftekhimik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

FK Neftekhimik47%

×Draw29%

Chelyabinsk25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK NeftekhimikExpected goals in this matchChelyabinsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.85

FK Neftekhimik

1.29

Chelyabinsk

0.85

FK Neftekhimik creates 52% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 17 away

1.33

creates per match

0.76

0.95

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik

1.33

Chelyabinsk

0.76

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik

0.95

Chelyabinsk

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

Chelyabinsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw

75%

FK Neftekhimik or Chelyabinsk

71%

Draw or Chelyabinsk

53%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+

22%

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals

72%

FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals

37%

FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals

14%

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals

57%

Chelyabinsk 2+ goals

21%

Chelyabinsk 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)

66%

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.95 · 122 matches

Chelyabinsk away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.33 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Chelyabinsk attack 0.76 + FK Neftekhimik defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more

47%

level

29%

Chelyabinsk scores more

25%

FK Neftekhimik at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

K. Kochiev

30'

Maksim Shiryaev

46'

D. Sukhomlinov← G. Kantaria

46'

D. Kokoev← D. Rodin

46'

A. Nikitin← D. Mikhaylov

60'

M. Filipovskiy← M. Shiryaev

60'

V. Palkin← D. Pushkarev

68'

S. Dzhamilov← K. Moiseev

69'

R. Magomedov

82'

A. Nosov← R. Gadzhimuradov

85'

B. N'Diaye← D. Samoilov

88'

Dmitriy Shadrintsev

Statistics

FKChelyabinsk

Discipline

1Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards0