FK Neftekhimik vs Arsenal Tula

FK Neftekhimik

Preview

15:00

Arsenal Tula

4/10/2027

First League · Round 26Neftekhimik Stadium

Big match

39%

FK Neftekhimik

model favours

39%30%31%

Both teams score in 90% of Arsenal Tula’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

66%

under 2.5 goals

41%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

FK Neftekhimik39%

×Draw30%

Arsenal Tula31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK NeftekhimikExpected goals in this matchArsenal Tula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.95

FK Neftekhimik

1.11

Arsenal Tula

0.95

FK Neftekhimik creates 17% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 38 away

1.09

creates per match

0.95

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik

1.09

Arsenal Tula

0.95

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik

0.95

Arsenal Tula

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

Arsenal Tula →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw

69%

FK Neftekhimik or Arsenal Tula

70%

Draw or Arsenal Tula

61%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+

16%

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals

67%

FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals

30%

FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals

10%

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals

61%

Arsenal Tula 2+ goals

25%

Arsenal Tula 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)

56%

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.95 · 44 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.09 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.11

Arsenal Tula attack 0.95 + FK Neftekhimik defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more

39%

level

30%

Arsenal Tula scores more

31%

FK Neftekhimik at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Neftekhimik

LDWDW

Tula

WDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff