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Arsenal Tula vs FK Neftekhimik — First League 2018

Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
5/11/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 32Stadion Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Arsenal Tula39%
×Draw29%
FK Neftekhimik33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula
1.18
FK Neftekhimik
1.06

Arsenal Tula creates 11% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 123 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula
1.17
FK Neftekhimik
1.12

allows per match

Arsenal Tula
0.99
FK Neftekhimik
1.19

finishing

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par
FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula ↓

FK Neftekhimik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula or draw
67%
Arsenal Tula or FK Neftekhimik
71%
Draw or FK Neftekhimik
61%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
16%
FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
69%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
33%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
12%
FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
65%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
29%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
54%
FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.99 · 69 matches

FK Neftekhimik away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.19 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula attack 1.17 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.18

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.12 + Arsenal Tula defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Arsenal Tula scores more
39%
level
29%
FK Neftekhimik scores more
33%

Arsenal Tula at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Arsenal Tula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Arsenal Tula 1–0 FK Neftekhimik

Arsenal Tula beat FK Neftekhimik 1-0 in First League on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Arsenal in Tula.