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FK Mladost Podgorica vs Rudar Velenje — First League 2019

FK Mladost Podgorica
FK Mladost Podgorica
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rudar Velenje
Rudar Velenje
8/14/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 3Stadion FK Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

FK Mladost Podgorica40%
×Draw28%
Rudar Velenje31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Mladost Podgorica
1.23
Rudar Velenje
1.04

FK Mladost Podgorica creates 18% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 90 away

creates per match

FK Mladost Podgorica
0.71
Rudar Velenje
0.86

allows per match

FK Mladost Podgorica
1.23
Rudar Velenje
1.76

finishing

FK Mladost Podgorica+0.00on par
Rudar Velenje+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Mladost Podgorica ↓

Rudar Velenje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FK Mladost Podgorica or draw
69%
FK Mladost Podgorica or Rudar Velenje
72%
Draw or Rudar Velenje
60%

Winning margin

FK Mladost Podgorica wins by 2+
18%
Rudar Velenje wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FK Mladost Podgorica 1+ goals
71%
FK Mladost Podgorica 2+ goals
35%
FK Mladost Podgorica 3+ goals
13%
Rudar Velenje 1+ goals
65%
Rudar Velenje 2+ goals
28%
Rudar Velenje 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FK Mladost Podgorica (draw refunded)
57%
Rudar Velenje (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Mladost Podgorica at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.23 · 35 matches

Rudar Velenje away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.76 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Mladost Podgorica attack 0.71 + Rudar Velenje defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.23

Rudar Velenje attack 0.86 + FK Mladost Podgorica defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FK Mladost Podgorica scores more
40%
level
28%
Rudar Velenje scores more
31%

FK Mladost Podgorica at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FK Mladost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Mladost Podgorica vs Rudar Velenje

Rudar Velenje beat FK Mladost Podgorica 1-0 in First League on August 14, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion FK Mladost in Podgorica.