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FK Mladost Podgorica vs Igalo — Second League 2019

FK Mladost Podgorica
FK Mladost Podgorica
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Igalo
Igalo
4/20/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 29Stadion FK Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

FK Mladost Podgorica31%
×Draw28%
Igalo42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Mladost Podgorica
1.08
Igalo
1.31

Igalo creates 21% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 105 away

creates per match

FK Mladost Podgorica
0.94
Igalo
1.01

allows per match

FK Mladost Podgorica
1.61
Igalo
1.23

finishing

FK Mladost Podgorica+0.00on par
Igalo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Mladost Podgorica ↓

Igalo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FK Mladost Podgorica or draw
58%
FK Mladost Podgorica or Igalo
72%
Draw or Igalo
69%

Winning margin

FK Mladost Podgorica wins by 2+
12%
Igalo wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FK Mladost Podgorica 1+ goals
66%
FK Mladost Podgorica 2+ goals
29%
FK Mladost Podgorica 3+ goals
10%
Igalo 1+ goals
73%
Igalo 2+ goals
38%
Igalo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FK Mladost Podgorica (draw refunded)
42%
Igalo (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Mladost Podgorica at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

Igalo away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.23 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Mladost Podgorica attack 0.94 + Igalo defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.08

Igalo attack 1.01 + FK Mladost Podgorica defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FK Mladost Podgorica scores more
31%
level
28%
Igalo scores more
42%

Igalo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Igalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Mladost Podgorica vs Igalo

Igalo beat FK Mladost Podgorica 5-2 in Second League on April 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Mladost in Podgorica.