FK Mladost Podgorica 0–1 Arsenal Tivat

FK Mladost Podgorica

FT

0 – 1

Arsenal Tivat

9/5/2021

Second League · Round 4Stadion FK Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

FK Mladost Podgorica29%

×Draw27%

Arsenal Tivat44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Mladost PodgoricaExpected goals in this matchArsenal Tivat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.41

FK Mladost Podgorica

1.09

Arsenal Tivat

1.41

Arsenal Tivat creates 29% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 51 away

0.94

creates per match

1.20

1.61

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

FK Mladost Podgorica

0.94

Arsenal Tivat

1.20

allows per match

FK Mladost Podgorica

1.61

Arsenal Tivat

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Mladost Podgorica+0.00on par

Arsenal Tivat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Mladost Podgorica ↓

Arsenal Tivat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FK Mladost Podgorica or draw

56%

FK Mladost Podgorica or Arsenal Tivat

73%

Draw or Arsenal Tivat

71%

Winning margin

FK Mladost Podgorica wins by 2+

11%

Arsenal Tivat wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

FK Mladost Podgorica 1+ goals

66%

FK Mladost Podgorica 2+ goals

30%

FK Mladost Podgorica 3+ goals

10%

Arsenal Tivat 1+ goals

76%

Arsenal Tivat 2+ goals

41%

Arsenal Tivat 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

FK Mladost Podgorica (draw refunded)

40%

Arsenal Tivat (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Mladost Podgorica at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

Arsenal Tivat away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Mladost Podgorica attack 0.94 + Arsenal Tivat defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Arsenal Tivat attack 1.20 + FK Mladost Podgorica defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FK Mladost Podgorica scores more

29%

level

27%

Arsenal Tivat scores more

44%

Arsenal Tivat at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Arsenal Tivat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff