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FK Minyor Pernik vs Septemvri Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

FK Minyor Pernik
FK Minyor Pernik
FT
1 – 0
Septemvri Sofia II
Septemvri Sofia II
2/24/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 21Stadion Minyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

FK Minyor Pernik62%
×Draw21%
Septemvri Sofia II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Minyor Pernik
2.04
Septemvri Sofia II
0.96

FK Minyor Pernik creates 113% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 88 away

creates per match

FK Minyor Pernik
2.25
Septemvri Sofia II
1.19

allows per match

FK Minyor Pernik
0.73
Septemvri Sofia II
1.83

finishing

FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par
Septemvri Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Minyor Pernik ↓

Septemvri Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FK Minyor Pernik or draw
83%
FK Minyor Pernik or Septemvri Sofia II
79%
Draw or Septemvri Sofia II
38%

Winning margin

FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+
38%
Septemvri Sofia II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals
87%
FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals
60%
FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals
33%
Septemvri Sofia II 1+ goals
62%
Septemvri Sofia II 2+ goals
25%
Septemvri Sofia II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)
78%
Septemvri Sofia II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Minyor Pernik at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.73 · 44 matches

Septemvri Sofia II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.83 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Minyor Pernik attack 2.25 + Septemvri Sofia II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.04

Septemvri Sofia II attack 1.19 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

FK Minyor Pernik scores more
62%
level
21%
Septemvri Sofia II scores more
17%

FK Minyor Pernik at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "FK Minyor Pernik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Minyor Pernik vs Septemvri Sofia II

FK Minyor Pernik beat Septemvri Sofia II 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Minyor in Pernik.